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Terrorist organizations such as ISIS and al-Qaeda and the violent extremists they inspire take advantage of developing nations, political instability, and undergoverned territory to entrench themselves in difficult operating environments and ingratiate themselves with local populations. These movements remain committed to attacking U.S. persons and facilities worldwide even as they balance those goals against local gains. These groups represent the most urgent threat to U.S. interests overseas.
In the homeland, we remain concerned about al-Qaeda and ISIS but assess that the threat they pose here is less acute than at any other time since 9/11, a judgment consistent with what we expressed last year. In fact, the most likely threat in the United States is from lone actors, including those inspired by foreign terrorist organizations and foreign racially and ethnically motivated violent extremists (REMVEs).
These individuals almost certainly mobilize to violence independently without direction from specific groups. Since 9/11, there have been thirty-seven attacks in the homeland inspired by al-Qaeda or ISIS, compared to eight that involved a direct connection to these groups. Similarly, during the last twelve years, all of the seventeen REMVE attacks by actors espousing the superiority of the white race were by individuals who radicalized at least in part online and who mobilized to violence as lone actors, many of whom were inspired by foreign REMVE attackers and their manifestos.
We remain concerned and vigilant regarding the threat from lone actors and small groups inspired by FTOs. Since 2001, the threat emanating from these individuals has evolved from one defined by complex, large-scale attacks directed by an FTO to mostly simple, self-initiated attacks inspired by an FTO. Messaging directed at these individuals to conduct attacks has decreased, although they continue to draw inspiration from historical publications such as Inspire magazine (published by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP) and ISIS messaging.
Turning to the overseas environment, foreign terrorist movements worldwide continue to inspire followers and enable attack plotting against the United States, Americans, and other Western countries. ISIS and al-Qaeda, the two leading foreign terrorist threats to U.S. interests, continue to aspire to attack U.S. and other Western interests but have been more effective at pursuing operations against regional and local adversaries. CT pressure by the United States and foreign partners during the past fifteen years has been critical in degrading the capability of these groups, particularly in disrupting experienced leaders and operatives and exacting sustained pressure against key networks.
While we have seen a decline in the number of ISIS-inspired attacks in the West since peaking in 2017, such operations remain a priority for the organization. The group also still aspires to deploy operatives to the West, and we continue to monitor for threats against high-visibility, attractive regional targets that would have similarly high impact and provide propaganda value and publicity, such as the recent World Cup in Qatar.
13 and 14 are particularly nasty. What will we analysts do when they publish their WMD recipes and formulas? Still download? I would not. You could get the non-XXX rated parts elsewhere, from SITE, for example (which I put right up there w LWJ and ISW fwiw). Some things, like bombmaking instructions and kiddie porn are just too much.If we killed the enemy more and talked him less, nothing would please me more.
The United States faces a growing terrorism problem that will likely worsen over the next year. Based on a CSIS data set of terrorist incidents, the most significant threat likely comes from white supremacists, though anarchists and religious extremists inspired by the Islamic State and al-Qaeda could present a potential threat as well. Over the rest of 2020, the terrorist threat in the United States will likely rise based on several factors, including the November 2020 presidential election.
The ideological content and political tone of recent Al Qaeda statements have led some terrorism analysts to speculate that the messages may signal an on effort by Al Qaeda founders to reaffirm their leadership roles and the role of the Al Qaeda organization as the vanguard of an emerging, loosely organized international jihadist movement. Others have argued that the presently limited operational capabilities of Al Qaeda's founders have inspired them to focus on ideological outreach activities and efforts to influence public opinion in the United States and Europe. Many observers believe that the group's primary goal remains to inspire, plan, and carry out attacks against the United States and its allies around the world, with particular emphasis on targeting economic and energy infrastructure and fomenting unrest in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Persian Gulf states, and countries neighboring Israel.
Al Qaeda's second objective, as identified by Al Adl, was to signal and support the "emergence of a new virtuous leadership" dedicated to opposing "the Zionist-Anglo-Saxon-Protestant coalition" that Al Qaeda blames for a litany of social and political ills in the Islamic world. Analysts have associated this stated objective with Al Qaeda leaders' views of themselves as the vanguard of a broader global Islamic movement and their desire to inspire political upheaval and change across the Islamic world. The third and "ultimate objective," according to Al Adl, "was to prompt [the United States] to come out of its hole." Al Adl claims that Al Qaeda wanted to provoke the United States into attacking areas of the Islamic world associated with the organization and its affiliates. In doing so, Al Adl claims, Al Qaeda hoped to make it easier to attack elements of U.S. power and to build its "credibility in front of [the Islamic] nation and the beleaguered people of the world."
In light of this trend, Al Qaeda leaders' shift toward more explicitly political and ideological rhetoric seems to signal a direct attempt to broaden the movement's appeal, solicit greater financial and material support, and possibly inspire new and more systematically devastating attacks. Some experts have argued however, that the uncompromising, anti-democratic tone of some public statements by Bin Laden and Al Zawahiri may alienate Muslims who oppose theocracy or who support secular or representative government. The anti-Shiite sectarian rhetoric of some Al Qaeda affiliates and the persistence of terrorist attacks that kill and maim Sunni and Shiite Muslims in Iraq also undermine Al Qaeda's appeal among some groups.
This June 27, 2013 indictment of the younger of the two Tsarnaev brothers for setting off two bombs at the 2013 Boston Marathon is one of many examples of Awlaki's continuing posthumous influence. It notes that Dzhokhar and his older brother, Tamerlan, got their bombmaking instructions from Awlaki's Al Qaeda magazine, Inspire, and that Dzhokhar had downloaded Awlaki's writings. At his trial, prosecutors noted the powerful influence of Awlaki and cited a tweet from Dzhokhar a few weeks before the attacks: "Listen to Anwar al-Awlaki's ... here after series, " Dzhokhar wrote, referring to the cleric's lectures on the afterlife, "you will gain an unbelievable amount of knowledge." Four years after Awlaki was killed, a search for his name on YouTube finds 45,000 videos, and the marathon attack was only one of several dozen plots and attacks in the West in which Awlaki appeared to be an important influence. 2b1af7f3a8